Vietnam’s 13th Party Congress

 The Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) concluded its 13th National Congress last week. Nguyen Phu Trong (“Trong”) was re-elected as General Secretary of the Party, despite both his age and having already served two terms. The other positions in the country’s traditional ‘four-pillar’ leadership model will not be confirmed until the next meeting of the National Assembly in a few months. However, even before the Congress concluded there were leaks as to who would hold office.[1] The publication of the new Politburo places Nguyen Xuan Phuc (“Phuc”), Pham Minh Chinh (“Chinh”) and Vuong Ding Hue (“Hue”) immediately behind Trong and is consistent with the earlier leaks.

* Full title - Communist Party of Vietnam Central Commission of Personal and Organisation

BM&A presents its analysis on the new leadership line-up as well as the possible policy implications and challenges.

Brief bios

Trong became Party Secretary in 2011 and will now serve a third term, despite also breaching the age limit of 65. (Traditionally a two-term limit has been observed along with the age limit). However, with the appointment of Phuc as President Trong relinquishes a role he assumed in October 2018 upon the passing of then President Tran Dai Quang.

In April 2019, Trong was rushed to hospital when visiting Kien Giang Province in southern Vietnam. Eventually the government confirmed that he had been ‘unwell’ but subsequently he resumed his duties and apparently intends to continue to do so for some time.

Trong may serve on an ‘interim basis’ and be replaced mid-term, although such an arrangement was supposedly in place when he was elected in 2016.

Phuc is the former PM and from Central Vietnam. His continuation in government suggests he remains in favour and retains influence. It is unclear whether he sought a second term as PM.

Chinh is the current Head of the CPV Central Commission. This is an important post, overseeing an essential element of the functioning of the CPV. He held the rank of Lieutenant General, Deputy Minister of Public Security (2010).

Chinh is a former General Secretary of Quang Ninh Province (2010-15), the northern most province of the eastern seaboard that borders China. Some analysis suggests Chinh is close to China although it is hard to verify such claims.

Hue is currently Secretary of the Hanoi Party Committee. He has held the position of Deputy PM (2016-June 2020), Minister of Finance (2011-13) and is a Professor of Economics.

Relaxation of the rules on age and terms

Both as a legacy of history and to ensure a balance between competing interests, Vietnam has observed some unwritten rules in the conduct of government appointments. Limits on age (65) and term (two) coupled with geographical representation have helped ensure an orderly succession of power. In the line-up recommended by the 15th Plenum and approved at the 13th National Congress (1,590 delegates) each of those rules have been tested and, for the moment at least, relaxed.

As noted, Trong will serve a third term as Party Secretary despite being 76 and Phuc will become President at the age of 66.

The current line does not have any representation from the south of the country. Indeed Phuc is the lone representative not to hail from the north.

These rules may prove progressively redundant. Extended life expectancy and improved healthcare are undermining the notion that 65 is an appropriate retirement age. At 78 the current US President is ‘junior’ in name only. As such, a relaxation of the age limits is a natural response to this reality.

That said, as noted Trong has experienced poor health and President Quang passed away in office. Therefore, the retention of Trong as Party Secretary, even if only on an interim basis, suggests disagreement about his successor. Tran Quoc Vuong (67) was viewed as close to Trong having served his anti-corruption drive as Chairman of the Central Inspection Committee. But he was unable to secure a position in the upper echelon. This implies that while Trong retains personal authority to safeguard his own position that does not appear to extend to his allies.

There is a risk that an extension of age and term limits unsettles the division of spoils among the party elite. A generation of senior politicians in their late 50’s would expect an imminent shot at the top positions. If the current incumbents serve into their 70’s,