Vietnam scrambles to contain COVID-19 and secure vaccines

 Vietnam was widely lauded for its response to COVID in 2020, resulting in just 1,465 cases of infection and 35 deaths by the end of December 2020. Restrictions on international travel were comprehensive but domestic travel had resumed and the economy managed to grow by 2.9% last year, making Vietnam one of very few countries to avoid a recession.

 

Cases, mortality, rate of change, and geographical scope

At the end of April 2021, cases rose sharply from below 20 to over 500 a day (25th May). The cumulative number of cases is now 15,740 (28th June), up from 1,465 at the end of 2020. Over the same period, mortalities have risen to 76 from 35.

Vietnam has responded with lockdowns and the caseload has peaked. The seven-day average has fallen to 335 on the 26th of June, down from a high of 377 on the 19th.

Though cases have been recorded across the country, the highest concentrations were in the adjoining northern provinces of Bac Giang and Bac Ninh. These industrial hubs lie within 50km of Hanoi to the north and east of the city. Data from mid-June showed that over half of the national cases originated in these provinces, though that proportion has fallen more recently as the epidemic has spread.

Social distancing measures

During May, Hanoi, HCMC and other major cities introduced a series of restrictions on movement and communal activities. All non-essential services such as street-side eateries, bars, nightclubs, and cinemas were progressively closed. On the 14th of May, Hanoi suspended all sports activities, including golf, while HCMC re-established 12 COVID-19 checkpoints on major thoroughfares leading to and from the city.

On 20th May, Apple suppliers Foxconn and Luxshare closed their factories in Bac Giang province for two weeks due to outbreaks of COVID cases.

On 31st May, HCMC moved to an effective lockdown (social distancing) for two weeks, with people only allowed to leave their homes for emergencies or essential activities, not to gather in public and to keep numbers below 20 in a single location, excepting workplaces, schools and hospitals.

On the 14th June, HCMC extended social distancing measures for a further two weeks and on the 20th June tightened further, suspending passenger taxis, ride-hailing taxis and public buses.

However, those places that had been enacted restrictive earlier begun to ease. For example, on the 26th May, four industrial parks in Bac Giang province begun to reopen and on the 24th June the province lifted social distancing measures.

Hanoi also relaxed restrictions, allowing indoor drinking, drinking establishments and barbershops to reopen on 22nd June, though at 50% capacity and to a maximum of 20 customers.

What is the response of the government?

The government has realized COVID cannot be contained and that a nationwide vaccination policy must be implemented as a priority. Throughout recent weeks efforts to secure vaccines have intensified.

To date, the government has approved vaccines from AstraZeneca, Sputnik V, Pfizer-BioNTech, and Sinopharm. AstraZeneca has an agreement to supply 30 million vaccines and Russia has pledged to deliver 20mn Sputnik V vaccines in 2021. Vietnam is also receiving other vaccines as aid and donations, such as the 966,000 AstraZeneca vaccines from Japan on the 17th of June.

The Ministry of Health announced that it was seeking 170 million vaccines to inoculate 70% of the 97mn population in 2021. The government is in discussions with the World Health Organization to receive additional vaccines under the COVAX initiative, having received 1.7 million AstraZeneca doses in May.

Simultaneously the government is seeking to develop a domestically produced vaccine. Prime Minister Chinh has set a target of June 2022 for the production of local vaccines. Human trials commence this August.

Vietnam has an important and long-standing collaboration with Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, supported by the government and hosted by the Hospital of Tropical Diseases (HTD) in Ho Chi Minh City, and the National Hospital for Tropical Diseases (NHTD) in Hanoi.

This is significant because the AstraZeneca vaccine was developed in conjunction with Oxford University and Chinh specifically mentioned technology transfer to underpin Vietnam’s push for a domestic vaccine. BM&A understands that Vietnamese hospitals are functioning normally.

Conclusions

Vietnam is struggling to contain the recent, nationwide outbreak through social distancing measures while playing catch-up with the provision of vaccines. The economy will be severely impacted by the disruption. The government lacks the fiscal capability to support the economy and job losses are inevitable after the significant slowdown in 2020. The retail trade and tourism are particularly vulnerable.

The provision of vaccines is gathering pace and some 60 million doses may be available this year under existing arrangements, led by the 30 million contract with AstraZeneca and 50mn from Russia (Sputnik V). That remains well short of the 170mn target of the government to cover 70% of the population.

Notably, Vietnam has received modest supplies from China, just 500,000 doses from Sinopharm. There is widespread resistance among the public to Chinese products and that is accentuated in the case of COVID given that it was first reported to have occurred in China.